It's just a matter of geography - where the bullseye will end up. And we're now pretty confident about the degree of magnitude for potential impacts too. And that can have a huge impact on 'who sees what'. Why is this still a challenging forecast? But it will pick up speed as it turns toward the northeast, following a frontal boundary right toward New Jersey. It's made very slow forward progress over the last 24 hours. It is now behaving more like an inland, continental, mid-latitude cyclone.Īs of 5 a.m., the Ida's remnants were moving from Mississippi and Alabama into Tennessee.

That means the area of low pressure (storm system or disturbance) is no longer 'feeding' on the warm ocean. What was once a major hurricane has now become 'extra tropical' or 'post tropical'. The brunt of the storm will arrive late Wednesday night. (It's already become extra-tropical.) But we are almost certainly facing heavy rain, flooding, severe weather, and even a bit of storm surge. It will not be a hurricane or tropical storm when it gets here. Hopefully by now you've heard that the remnants of Hurricane Ida will bring some nasty weather to New Jersey in the coming days. Wednesday), and also clears out the nasty weather sooner (5 a.m. Latest guidance suggests the 'brunt' of the storm will push in a bit earlier (7 p.m. We'll still see a few 'appetizer' bands of rain during the day tomorrow. As we've discussed, that means the greatest tornado risk will be in southern NJ (along with 1+ inch of rain). And there's still a clear consensus keeping the heaviest 5+ rain totals (and biggest flooding threat) over the northern half of the state. Chance of precipitation is 30 percent.Afternoon models are in. Saturday night: A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 8 p.m. Saturday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2 p.m. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. New rainfall amounts of less than a 10th of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.įriday night: A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 2am, then a slight chance of showers. Calm wind becoming southwest around 5 mph in the afternoon. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.įriday: A chance of showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 11 a.m. Calm wind becoming southwest around 5 mph. Thursday night: A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 2 a.m., then a slight chance of showers. Thursday: A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2 p.m. Some storms could be severe, with large hail and damaging winds. Wednesday night: A chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 10pm. New rainfall amounts between a 10th and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. West wind around 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. More than 200,000 customers were without power. The weather could impact management of the coronavirus outbreak (see below). A severe thunderstorm watch and warnings were in effect in a number of New Jersey counties on Wednesday as hail, 80-mph damaging winds, power outages and possibly lightning were expected to hit the Garden State today and this week.

Cherry hill nj rainfall totals